Trucking / Owner-Operator Fleet
This analysis follows the BAM Analysis Framework, evaluating Earnings Quality, Capital Structure Sustainability, Operational Risk Exposure, and Upside Potential.
Deal Snapshot
Industry: Regional Freight Trucking (5-Truck Fleet)
Revenue: $2,400,000
Seller’s Discretionary Earnings (SDE): $500,000
Asking Price: $1,400,000
Multiple: 2.8x SDE
Valuation Analysis
At 2.8x SDE, valuation aligns with small fleet acquisition norms.
However, trucking profitability is sensitive to fuel costs, driver availability, maintenance cycles, and freight rate volatility.
Asset condition materially affects earnings durability.
SBA Loan Scenario
Purchase Price: $1,400,000
Buyer Equity (10%): $140,000
Loan Amount: $1,260,000
Estimated Annual Debt Service: ~$200,000
Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)
DSCR = $500,000 ÷ $200,000 = 2.5x
Baseline coverage appears adequate under stable freight contracts.
Operational Risk Factors
• Fuel price volatility
• Driver recruitment and retention
• DOT compliance and regulatory risk
• Equipment breakdown risk
• Freight rate cyclicality
Upside Potential
• Contract renegotiation
• Route optimization
• Fleet expansion
• Dedicated lane agreements
Downside Stress Scenario (Freight Rate Compression 15%)
Adjusted SDE ≈ $360,000
Revised DSCR:
$360,000 ÷ $200,000 = 1.8x
Coverage cushion narrows materially during freight downturn cycles.
Capital Structure Assessment
Capital structure is moderately resilient but exposed to asset depreciation and macro freight cycles.
Equipment replacement cycles must be factored into long-term modeling.
BAM Risk Profile
Earnings Stability: Moderate
Capital Structure Strength: Moderate
Operational Exposure: Elevated
Revenue Volatility Sensitivity: Moderate
Overall Risk Tier: Moderate
Investment Thesis
Strong revenue base with acceptable leverage, but asset intensity and regulatory exposure introduce moderate structural risk.
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